Analysis

KWEB US (China internet fund) – 25 March 2025

China Tech stocks are in the news at the moment having fallen out of a three year high. However the cycles picture is not too shocking

Macro Outlook – 24 March 2025

A macro rotation has begun with Treasury notes having topped out at 80 day degree cycle magnitude, the Dollar and Yen potentially round 20 week cycle troughs and major equity indices and Bitcoin in new 80 day cycle upswings

ASX 200 (Australian Index futures) – 21 March 2025

ASX – the 80 day cycle bottoms

SOX Index update – 18 March 2025

SOX Index – is the 18 month cycle turning up?

Macro Outlook – 17 March 2025

Overall in today’s note we are potentially looking at the early stages of a risk on macro rotation.

Gold update – 14 March 2025

Gold – nearing peak, potentially 80 day cycle magnitude

Natural Gas – 12 March 2025

Natural Gas – 80 day cycle peak in place?

USDJPY – 12 March 2025

USDJPY – constructive in the 20 week cycle trough zone. To understand the yen now is to understand US Ten Year yields

Tesla – 11 March 2025

TSLA has fallen 55% since December 2024 high – now in the 80 day cycle trough

Macro Outlook – 10 March 2025

The big driver in macro at the moment is the US Dollar and despite some false starts the preferred view is that a 20 week cycle trough should kick in momentarily. If this does not happen then we will be forced to consider a very bearish alternate view

SOX Index – 6 March 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

10 Year Treasury Notes update – 5 March 2025

10 Year Treasury Notes – the 80 day cycle peak may be in place

US Dollar update – 4 March 2025

US Dollar – revision and a longer term look at the cycles

Macro Outlook – 3 March 2025

The US Dollar looks to have rounded a 20 week cycle trough and 10 year notes are in an 80 day cycle peak zone with downside resolution looming. Gold looks to have more near term downside. We are looking for the next leg down in Copper and for Bitcoin to fade out.

US Dollar update – 26 February 2025

US Dollar – downside structure looks mature in minimum of 80 day cycle trough zone

Copper update – 26 February 2025

Copper – 20 day cycle spike, but peak is close, then back down.

Bitcoin update – 25 February 2025

Bitcoin – breakdown and looking at the 40 week cycle downswing

Hang Seng Tech futures – 25 February 2025

Hang Seng Tech – 20 week cycle still rising, counter-trend 40 day cycle trough due

Macro Outlook – 24 February 2025

The US Dollar looks to be in an 80 day cycle trough zone and we are looking for a recovery. Full analysis of 10 macro instruments …

SOX Index – 20 February 2025

SOX – countertrend rally into proximate 40 day cycle peak zone

ASX 200 (Australian Index futures) – 19 February 2025

ASX 200 (Australian index) futures – long term entering an 18 month cycle peak zone; near term looking for a counter-trend 80 day cycle bounce and fade

Aussie (AUDUSD) – 19 February 2025

Aussie – approaching pro-trend 20 day cycle peak

Cable (GBPUSD) – 18 February 2025

Cable – approaching a 40 day cycle peak

Macro Outlook – 17 February 2025

We are looking for an upside inflection in the US Dollar shortly and Oil and Bitcoin a little thereafter. Copper looks to have peaked and Gold is in a longer term topping structure. EURUSD looks to have limited upside. S&P 500 E minis should push higher.

Natural Gas – 13 February 2025

Natural Gas – counter-trend rally closing in on a 40 day cycle peak and key resistance

US Ten Year Yield – 11 February 2025

US Ten Year – expecting higher yields and bond sell off continuation: new 20 week cycle trough in place

Macro Outlook – 10 February 2025

A lot of big macro moves effectively led by US Dollar as Trump announces broad 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as 10% extra tariffs on China

Macro Outlook – 3 February 2025

A lot of big macro moves effectively led by US Dollar as Trump announces broad 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as 10% extra tariffs on China

Macro Outlook – 27 January 2025

In this week’s note we start mixing up timeframes. If something is coming into or just out of an inflection point, we drop down to 240 minute timeframe for more granularity

10 Year Treasuries – 23 January 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

Natural Gas – 21 January 2025

Natural Gas futures – navigating a potential 20 week cycle peak zone

Macro Outlook – 20 January 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

ASX 200 (Australian Index futures) – 17 January 2025

ASX 200 (Australian index) futures – counter-trend 40 day cycle upswing, limited upside before fall into 20 week cycle trough

S&P500 E-Minis update – 16 January 2025

S&P 500 Futures – counter-trend 20 day cycle trough now in place

CHFUSD (Swissie) – 15 January 2025

Swissie – approaching a 40 week cycle nest of lows, due this month

USDJPY update – 15 January 2025

USDJPY – closing in on a 40 day cycle trough

GBPUSD (Cable) – 14 January 2025

Cable GBPUSD – approaching a 40 week cycle nest of lows, due this month

Macro Outlook – 13 January 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

Oil (WTI) update – 9 January 2025

Oil (WTI) – the 40 day cycle peak may now be in place

Copper update – 9 January 2025

Copper – the 40 day cycle trough is in place and price is now challenging a 20 day cycle peak

US Dollar update – 6 January 2025

US Dollar update – still tracking a 40 day cycle trough either being in now or just about to post

Macro Outlook – 6 January 2025

The markets are starting to perk up as players drag themselves back to their screens. Starting to see some inflections in Gold, Oil, Bitcoin, E-minis and USDJPY. Treasury notes and the Euro continue to look weak

Macro Outlook – 30 December 2024

The markets are drifting somewhat aimlessly in the Christmas / New Year period. We expect to see a firming up of direction once liquidity returns

Macro Outlook – 23 December 2024

Last Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC triggered a bout of high market volatility and seemed to disrupt some of the views from last Monday’s macro outlook. But in fact, there was not as much change as it seemed.

Macro Outlook – 16 December 2024

Expected troughs have formed, and FLD and VTL confirmations are in place. Here is the detailed analysis of all ten markets

10 year US Treasury notes update – 12 December 2024

10 Year Notes – falling into a pro-trend 40 day cycle trough

US Dollar vs Mexican Peso (USDMXN) update – 11 December 2024

USDMXN – now in the 20 week cycle trough zone

Gold update – 9 December 2024

Gold – the 40 day cycle may just have bottomed

China A50 Futures – 9 December 2024

The 80 day cycle trough came in on 26 November and although it was confirmed by the 40 day VTL up cross on 29 November the index was waiting for a catalyst (government intervention basically)

Macro Outlook – 9 December 2024

The key index to watch is the US Dollar – potentially emerging from an 80 day cycle trough (together with USDJPY). Gold’s 40 day cycle looks heavy, Oil is testing an 80 day cycle low, S&P500 futures look to have more upside play, Bitcoin still has legs