Analysis

SOX Index – 20 February 2025

SOX – countertrend rally into proximate 40 day cycle peak zone

ASX 200 (Australian Index futures) – 19 February 2025

ASX 200 (Australian index) futures – long term entering an 18 month cycle peak zone; near term looking for a counter-trend 80 day cycle bounce and fade

Aussie (AUDUSD) – 19 February 2025

Aussie – approaching pro-trend 20 day cycle peak

Cable (GBPUSD) – 18 February 2025

Cable – approaching a 40 day cycle peak

Macro Outlook – 17 February 2025

We are looking for an upside inflection in the US Dollar shortly and Oil and Bitcoin a little thereafter. Copper looks to have peaked and Gold is in a longer term topping structure. EURUSD looks to have limited upside. S&P 500 E minis should push higher.

Natural Gas – 13 February 2025

Natural Gas – counter-trend rally closing in on a 40 day cycle peak and key resistance

US Ten Year Yield – 11 February 2025

US Ten Year – expecting higher yields and bond sell off continuation: new 20 week cycle trough in place

Macro Outlook – 10 February 2025

A lot of big macro moves effectively led by US Dollar as Trump announces broad 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as 10% extra tariffs on China

Macro Outlook – 3 February 2025

A lot of big macro moves effectively led by US Dollar as Trump announces broad 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as 10% extra tariffs on China

Macro Outlook – 27 January 2025

In this week’s note we start mixing up timeframes. If something is coming into or just out of an inflection point, we drop down to 240 minute timeframe for more granularity

10 Year Treasuries – 23 January 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

Natural Gas – 21 January 2025

Natural Gas futures – navigating a potential 20 week cycle peak zone

Macro Outlook – 20 January 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

ASX 200 (Australian Index futures) – 17 January 2025

ASX 200 (Australian index) futures – counter-trend 40 day cycle upswing, limited upside before fall into 20 week cycle trough

S&P500 E-Minis update – 16 January 2025

S&P 500 Futures – counter-trend 20 day cycle trough now in place

CHFUSD (Swissie) – 15 January 2025

Swissie – approaching a 40 week cycle nest of lows, due this month

USDJPY update – 15 January 2025

USDJPY – closing in on a 40 day cycle trough

GBPUSD (Cable) – 14 January 2025

Cable GBPUSD – approaching a 40 week cycle nest of lows, due this month

Macro Outlook – 13 January 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

Oil (WTI) update – 9 January 2025

Oil (WTI) – the 40 day cycle peak may now be in place

Copper update – 9 January 2025

Copper – the 40 day cycle trough is in place and price is now challenging a 20 day cycle peak

US Dollar update – 6 January 2025

US Dollar update – still tracking a 40 day cycle trough either being in now or just about to post

Macro Outlook – 6 January 2025

The markets are starting to perk up as players drag themselves back to their screens. Starting to see some inflections in Gold, Oil, Bitcoin, E-minis and USDJPY. Treasury notes and the Euro continue to look weak

Macro Outlook – 30 December 2024

The markets are drifting somewhat aimlessly in the Christmas / New Year period. We expect to see a firming up of direction once liquidity returns

Macro Outlook – 23 December 2024

Last Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC triggered a bout of high market volatility and seemed to disrupt some of the views from last Monday’s macro outlook. But in fact, there was not as much change as it seemed.

Macro Outlook – 16 December 2024

Expected troughs have formed, and FLD and VTL confirmations are in place. Here is the detailed analysis of all ten markets

10 year US Treasury notes update – 12 December 2024

10 Year Notes – falling into a pro-trend 40 day cycle trough

US Dollar vs Mexican Peso (USDMXN) update – 11 December 2024

USDMXN – now in the 20 week cycle trough zone

Gold update – 9 December 2024

Gold – the 40 day cycle may just have bottomed

China A50 Futures – 9 December 2024

The 80 day cycle trough came in on 26 November and although it was confirmed by the 40 day VTL up cross on 29 November the index was waiting for a catalyst (government intervention basically)

Macro Outlook – 9 December 2024

The key index to watch is the US Dollar – potentially emerging from an 80 day cycle trough (together with USDJPY). Gold’s 40 day cycle looks heavy, Oil is testing an 80 day cycle low, S&P500 futures look to have more upside play, Bitcoin still has legs

US Dollar | Offshore Chinese Renminbi (USDCNH) – 5 December 2024

USDCNH – at least a 40 day cycle peak is potentially in place

Australian large cap index S&P/ASX 200 – 3 December 2024

The underlying trend is still up with the 40 week cycle which bottomed early August being just 17 weeks along. We would not expect a peak of this long cycle to come any time soon barring some sort of catastrophic fundamental interaction

Eurostoxx 50 Index update – 2 December 2024

Eurostoxx 50 – the 80 day cycle trough is likely in place, generating a projection to the 40 day peak

Macro Outlook – 2 December 2024

The key question around a macro rotation this week is whether the US Dollar finds support here and conversely whether US government bonds falter

US Dollar vs Mexican Peso (USDMXN) update – 28 November 2024

80 day cycle peak may be in place and looking lower for a 20 week cycle trough

Natural Gas – 27 November 2024

Expecting a 40 day cycle peak to form and a pullback to ensue

Macro Outlook – 26 November 2024

A top out in the US Dollar and upside reversal in bonds points to a short to intermediate term macro rotation. We see Gold, Copper and Oil extending higher together with the Euro

Bitcoin Update – 21 November 2024

We were expecting a 40 day cycle trough to form before the bullish march to $100,000 continued. But Bitcoin couldn’t wait …

Macro Outlook – 18 November 2024

The macro complex has been hesitating post the so-called Trump bump. The US Dollar and Bitcoin look to be in short to intermediate topping zones and S&P 500 is falling over with hedge fund short interest building

10 year US Treasury notes update – 13 November 2024

Rallies as the US Dollar fails in bull trap or softens as Dollar pushes out through June highs?

Wheat futures update – 12 November 2024

In the anticipated 80 day cycle trough zone now. Signs to watch for the trough confirmation

Oil update – 12 November 2024

In this revision to Monday’s outlook we adjust our target levels and expectations

US Dollar vs. South African Rand (USDZAR) update – 11 November 2024

In our last update we forecast a 40 day cycle trough at just over 17.1 around 12 November. The actual 40 day cycle trough came in at 17.27 on 7 November

Macro Outlook – 11 November 2024

Post the US Presidential election US equities, Bitcoin and the Dollar have continued to push. Gold is languishing but nearing a trough zone and the broader outlook for the Euro remains down

Gold update – 7 November 2024

In Monday’s macro outlook we were looking for the next 40 day cycle trough under the 40 day VTL

FTSE China A50 Index futures update – 7 November 2024

The question for China here is how significant was the trough that has launched the recent push higher and where does it fit into the longer trend?

Macro Outlook – 4 November 2024

Into the US Presidential election tomorrow and we expect volatility, which could temporarily disrupt analysis conclusions. Eyes are on equity risk in particular and we look at the cyclic inflections in S&P 500 futures. Also of note is the turn that looks to be taking place in the US Dollar.

CBOE VIX Index – 1 November 2024

The monthly log chart here is regular and shows stable rhythm, although the last 54 month cycle period was lengthened. The VIX shows the expected volatility of the S&P500 Index (SPX), when VIX rises SPX gets more volatile and moves (either up or down). The analysis shows …

S&P 500 futures update – 1 November 2024

The 80 day cycle has peaked and we are projecting down to around 5,600 – 5,650 for the next 80 day cycle trough from next week onwards, centering around 11 November