Analysis

Macro Outlook – 16 December 2024

Expected troughs have formed, and FLD and VTL confirmations are in place. Here is the detailed analysis of all ten markets

10 year US Treasury notes update – 12 December 2024

10 Year Notes – falling into a pro-trend 40 day cycle trough

US Dollar vs Mexican Peso (USDMXN) update – 11 December 2024

USDMXN – now in the 20 week cycle trough zone

Gold update – 9 December 2024

Gold – the 40 day cycle may just have bottomed

China A50 Futures – 9 December 2024

The 80 day cycle trough came in on 26 November and although it was confirmed by the 40 day VTL up cross on 29 November the index was waiting for a catalyst (government intervention basically)

Macro Outlook – 9 December 2024

The key index to watch is the US Dollar – potentially emerging from an 80 day cycle trough (together with USDJPY). Gold’s 40 day cycle looks heavy, Oil is testing an 80 day cycle low, S&P500 futures look to have more upside play, Bitcoin still has legs

US Dollar | Offshore Chinese Renminbi (USDCNH) – 5 December 2024

USDCNH – at least a 40 day cycle peak is potentially in place

Australian large cap index S&P/ASX 200 – 3 December 2024

The underlying trend is still up with the 40 week cycle which bottomed early August being just 17 weeks along. We would not expect a peak of this long cycle to come any time soon barring some sort of catastrophic fundamental interaction

Eurostoxx 50 Index update – 2 December 2024

Eurostoxx 50 – the 80 day cycle trough is likely in place, generating a projection to the 40 day peak

Macro Outlook – 2 December 2024

The key question around a macro rotation this week is whether the US Dollar finds support here and conversely whether US government bonds falter

US Dollar vs Mexican Peso (USDMXN) update – 28 November 2024

80 day cycle peak may be in place and looking lower for a 20 week cycle trough

Natural Gas – 27 November 2024

Expecting a 40 day cycle peak to form and a pullback to ensue

Macro Outlook – 26 November 2024

A top out in the US Dollar and upside reversal in bonds points to a short to intermediate term macro rotation. We see Gold, Copper and Oil extending higher together with the Euro

Bitcoin Update – 21 November 2024

We were expecting a 40 day cycle trough to form before the bullish march to $100,000 continued. But Bitcoin couldn’t wait …

Macro Outlook – 18 November 2024

The macro complex has been hesitating post the so-called Trump bump. The US Dollar and Bitcoin look to be in short to intermediate topping zones and S&P 500 is falling over with hedge fund short interest building

10 year US Treasury notes update – 13 November 2024

Rallies as the US Dollar fails in bull trap or softens as Dollar pushes out through June highs?

Wheat futures update – 12 November 2024

In the anticipated 80 day cycle trough zone now. Signs to watch for the trough confirmation

Oil update – 12 November 2024

In this revision to Monday’s outlook we adjust our target levels and expectations

US Dollar vs. South African Rand (USDZAR) update – 11 November 2024

In our last update we forecast a 40 day cycle trough at just over 17.1 around 12 November. The actual 40 day cycle trough came in at 17.27 on 7 November

Macro Outlook – 11 November 2024

Post the US Presidential election US equities, Bitcoin and the Dollar have continued to push. Gold is languishing but nearing a trough zone and the broader outlook for the Euro remains down

Gold update – 7 November 2024

In Monday’s macro outlook we were looking for the next 40 day cycle trough under the 40 day VTL

FTSE China A50 Index futures update – 7 November 2024

The question for China here is how significant was the trough that has launched the recent push higher and where does it fit into the longer trend?

Macro Outlook – 4 November 2024

Into the US Presidential election tomorrow and we expect volatility, which could temporarily disrupt analysis conclusions. Eyes are on equity risk in particular and we look at the cyclic inflections in S&P 500 futures. Also of note is the turn that looks to be taking place in the US Dollar.

CBOE VIX Index – 1 November 2024

The monthly log chart here is regular and shows stable rhythm, although the last 54 month cycle period was lengthened. The VIX shows the expected volatility of the S&P500 Index (SPX), when VIX rises SPX gets more volatile and moves (either up or down). The analysis shows …

S&P 500 futures update – 1 November 2024

The 80 day cycle has peaked and we are projecting down to around 5,600 – 5,650 for the next 80 day cycle trough from next week onwards, centering around 11 November

UK 10 year gilts update – 30 October 2024

Updating the 23 October update post the Rachel Reeves UK Budget announcement. The 18 October low could well have been a 54 month cycle trough and price has continued to lift well.

10 year US Treasury notes update – 30 October 2024

We last updated on 21 October and the road-map so far has been accurate. The 80 day cycle trough could be forming now

US Dollar vs. South African Rand (USDZAR) update – 30 October 2024

Updating the call we made on 17 October. A quick reminder of why we look at this emerging markets pair: the South African Rand (ZAR) is sensitive to industrial metals prices, which in turn makes it a China and a global growth play

CADUSD (Canadian vs US Dollar) – 29 October 2024

It is not inconceivable that the 54 month cycle trough is pushed forward in time and an opportunity at the shorter cycles degree may be presenting itself

Macro Outlook – 28 October 2024

In last week’s note we were looking for a peak in the 40 day cycle to be confirmed by a down-cross in the 10 and 20 day FLDs and then a rather sharp retrace into the 40 day cycle trough …

Palladium update – 25 October 2024

The trough phasing analysis has shifted and the 80 day cycle trough is now phased on 30 September. Price is now in a 40 day cycle peak zone and further upside is limited

EURUSD update – 25 October 2024

Price is starting to move and is testing the 10 day VTL right now. If this is cleared to the upside, then we know that the 20 day cycle trough is in place …

UK 10 year gilts update – 23 October 2024

We wrote a pretty thorough long and near term analysis back on 16 October in which the basic premise was that a very long cycle trough was due around now but that price would tactically drop first. We have now been through the anticipated decline and have rebounded out …

NVIDIA update – 23 October 2024

We last looked at NVDA on 9 October at 132.89 close, looking for a rally expansion towards 150 with the 40 and 20 week cycle upswings acting as a tailwind. Price is now 7 points away from 150 and the analysis suggests …

WTI Oil update – 22 October 2024

In Monday’s macro outlook we were looking for a 40 day cycle trough potentially around the 20 day VTL and imminently. If we don’t get a failure intraday …

Natural Gas update – 22 October 2024

In the last update (8 October) we were tracking the 80 day cycle trough around mid month and 2.5. Price has fallen pretty hard since then and down through the original target …

10 year US Treasury notes update – 21 October 2024

We were looking for a counter-trend 40 day cycle upswing to around 113 and then a top out and decline into the 80 day cycle trough due around mid next month. What next?

Macro Outlook – 21 October 2024

Our Monday update on macro instruments, including BTC: we are looking for the next minor inflection to be the 20 day cycle peak due by month end and above 70,000

Copper update – 18 October 2024

In Monday’s macro outlook we were looking lower for the 80 day cycle trough. Price has continued to fall across the week, but with an uplift in China indices, we could be seeing a bottoming formation now. Time to consider targets and confirmation levels:

Russell 2000 Index longer range – 18 October 2024

Monthly bar chart shows super regular and coherent 54 month cycle rhythm. The last 54 month cycle trough was in October 2023. For a slightly more granular view, we look at weekly bars

US Dollar vs. South African Rand (USDZAR)- 17 October 2024

The South African Rand (ZAR) is sensitive to industrial metals prices, which in turn makes it a China and a global growth play. Other things equal and simply put, if ZAR strengthens, then the industrial metals market is robust; if it falls then the reverse is true.

UK 10 year gilts – 16 October 2024

UK 10 year gilts update – 23 October 2024

Bitcoin long range – 16 October 2024

A new post Bitcoin long range – 16 October 2024

Shanghai Composite Index update – 20 September 2024

Shanghai Composite Index update – 20 September 2024

10 year US Treasury notes – 19 September 2024

10 year US Treasury notes – 19 September 2024

Shanghai Composite Index – 11 September 2024

Even if you do not trade China, understanding market sentiment there is key to a host of other macro elements

Bitcoin update – 10 September 2024

Bitcoin update – 10 September 2024

Copper update – 6 September 2024

Copper update – 6 September 2024

Dollar Index – 5 September 2024

US Dollar update 5 September 2024

S&P500 E-minis update – 4 September 2024

ES futures update 4 September 2024