Analysis

Macro Outlook – 16 June 2025

The US Dollar still looks heavy and price is being sucked down into an 80 day cycle low. S&P500 futures could very well be setting up for a burst higher. Oil is approaching a natural intermediate target around 80. Bitcoin is pushing tactically but a big trough is looming ahead

Oil (WTI) update – 13 June 2025

Oil (WTI) – new 80 day cycle rising, but nearing first 20 day cycle peak.

Macro Outlook – 9 June 2025

USD rounding 40 day cycle trough and Gold falling. S&P 500 80 day top probably in place. Bitcoin in last rally of the cycle

The Great Market Myth: Why News Doesn’t Drive Prices (And What Actually Does)

Fundamentals of the Sentient Approach to Financial Markets The Story

Contradictory Cause-Effect Narratives in Financial Media

Complete Research Documentation This comprehensive analysis documents over 20 recent

US 10 Year Yield – 5 June 2025

US 10 year note bond yields nearing 80 day cycle trough zone

Macro Outlook – 2 June 2025

Overall there is a fair bit of conflict afoot. The assumption is that the Dollar has rounded a 40 day cycle trough and should advance, but we are also seeing near term strength in commodities and Treasury Notes. This week feels like a crux of some sort.

Macro Outlook – 27 May 2025

This week we are looking for the US Dollar to bottom and for Gold, Copper and the Euro to retreat. Oil is meandering but likely has a little more upside near term. Bitcoin still has merit as a long and we will review towards 120k

Bitcoin update – 21 May 2025

Bitcoin – revised view, looking higher for 20 week cycle peak.

Macro Outlook – 19 May 2025

S&P500 futures just topped at 40 day cycle magnitude along with Nikkei futures and potentially Bitcoin. At this stage we are not looking for meaningful resets lower. The US Dollar is still constructive in our view and is merely looking for the first 40 day cycle trough at the moment

Macro Outlook – 12 May 2025

A meaningful rotation higher is underway with the US Dollar and USDJPY and perhaps anachronistically Oil. Equity indices higher, but nearing a 40 day cycle peak still. Gold we see in continued decline near term.

Macro Outlook – 6 May 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

S&P500 E-minis – 1 May 2025

S&P 500 E-minis (ES) – on the way to extended 40 day cycle peak

Natural Gas – 29 April 2025

Natural Gas – counter-trend 80 day cycle kicks off

Macro Outlook – 28 April 2025

We see ES, NI, BTC and TY all in counter-trend 40 day cycle peak zones. The Dollar and USDJPY are trying to gain traction in new 80 day cycle upswings. Oil has merit for continued upside expansion, Gold looks to have peaked at a meaningfully high degree of magnitude

Macro Outlook II – 23 April 2025

DXY and EURUSD updates

Macro Outlook – 22 April 2025

Gold is still pushing towards its 40 week cycle peak. Oil and Copper are reaching for counter-trend 40 day cycle peaks. SPX, NKY and 10 year treasury futures still heavy. Bitcoin counter-trend advance not likely to exceed 95,000

FTSE China Futures (XU) – 16 April 2025

FTSE China Futures – 80 day cycle in counter-trend upswing nearing maturity

Macro Outlook part II – 15 April 2025

We missed out S&P 500 futures, Nikkei futures and Bitcoin in the Monday note and here is our current stance

Macro Outlook – 14 April 2025

The macro landscape is very fluid at the moment, however the US Dollar and USDJPY look to be testing cycle trough zones (40 day and 80 day respectively). Perhaps the biggest call though is the impending 40 week cycle peak in Gold which will track closely this and next week.

US Dollar update – 10 April 2025

US Dollar – revision to Monday’s view: 20 week cycle trough lies ahead of us

S&P500 Index Futures (ES) update – 10 April 2025

S&P 500 Futures – nearing a 20 day cycle peak, then assumption is down again

Gold update – 10 April 2025

Gold – new pro-trend 40 day cycle upswing underway?

US Ten Year Yields – 8 April 2025

US Ten Year Yield – counter-trend 80 day cycle upswing underway

Macro Outlook – 7 April 2025

Post Liberation day there has been a fundamental shock to the cycles regime and we are seeing meaningful price destruction across metals, currencies and equities

Dollar Index update – 3 April 2025

Post “liberation day” yesterday the Dollar has gapped down and crossed through the 40 day FLD below the 40 day VTL.

Macro Outlook – 31 March 2025

The US Dollar despite a pullback last week remains constructive. S&P 500 futures took some technical damage last week but we are looking for upside resolution, the same is true for Bitcoin. Gold continued to push higher, but we are actively stalking the 40 day cycle peak this week

Cable (GBPUSD) update – 26 March 2025

We last wrote on Cable on 18 February and were looking for a price expansion into the 40 day cycle peak around 1.284 (with a potential for an overshoot) in the second week of March. This panned out accurately

KWEB US (China internet fund) – 25 March 2025

China Tech stocks are in the news at the moment having fallen out of a three year high. However the cycles picture is not too shocking

Macro Outlook – 24 March 2025

A macro rotation has begun with Treasury notes having topped out at 80 day degree cycle magnitude, the Dollar and Yen potentially round 20 week cycle troughs and major equity indices and Bitcoin in new 80 day cycle upswings

ASX 200 (Australian Index futures) – 21 March 2025

ASX – the 80 day cycle bottoms

SOX Index update – 18 March 2025

SOX Index – is the 18 month cycle turning up?

Macro Outlook – 17 March 2025

Overall in today’s note we are potentially looking at the early stages of a risk on macro rotation.

Gold update – 14 March 2025

Gold – nearing peak, potentially 80 day cycle magnitude

Natural Gas – 12 March 2025

Natural Gas – 80 day cycle peak in place?

USDJPY – 12 March 2025

USDJPY – constructive in the 20 week cycle trough zone. To understand the yen now is to understand US Ten Year yields

Tesla – 11 March 2025

TSLA has fallen 55% since December 2024 high – now in the 80 day cycle trough

Macro Outlook – 10 March 2025

The big driver in macro at the moment is the US Dollar and despite some false starts the preferred view is that a 20 week cycle trough should kick in momentarily. If this does not happen then we will be forced to consider a very bearish alternate view

SOX Index – 6 March 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

10 Year Treasury Notes update – 5 March 2025

10 Year Treasury Notes – the 80 day cycle peak may be in place

US Dollar update – 4 March 2025

US Dollar – revision and a longer term look at the cycles

Macro Outlook – 3 March 2025

The US Dollar looks to have rounded a 20 week cycle trough and 10 year notes are in an 80 day cycle peak zone with downside resolution looming. Gold looks to have more near term downside. We are looking for the next leg down in Copper and for Bitcoin to fade out.

US Dollar update – 26 February 2025

US Dollar – downside structure looks mature in minimum of 80 day cycle trough zone

Copper update – 26 February 2025

Copper – 20 day cycle spike, but peak is close, then back down.

Bitcoin update – 25 February 2025

Bitcoin – breakdown and looking at the 40 week cycle downswing

Hang Seng Tech futures – 25 February 2025

Hang Seng Tech – 20 week cycle still rising, counter-trend 40 day cycle trough due

Macro Outlook – 24 February 2025

The US Dollar looks to be in an 80 day cycle trough zone and we are looking for a recovery. Full analysis of 10 macro instruments …

SOX Index – 20 February 2025

SOX – countertrend rally into proximate 40 day cycle peak zone

ASX 200 (Australian Index futures) – 19 February 2025

ASX 200 (Australian index) futures – long term entering an 18 month cycle peak zone; near term looking for a counter-trend 80 day cycle bounce and fade

Aussie (AUDUSD) – 19 February 2025

Aussie – approaching pro-trend 20 day cycle peak