Analysis

Macro Outlook – 29 September 2025

US Dollar and USDJPY moving into 20 day cycle troughs. Gold still up. Oil down into 40 day trough. Copper and EURUSD possible early 80 day troughs. SPX and Nikkei 40 day troughs next. Bitcoin formed early 40 day trough. Ten year notes need confirmation of 80 day cycle trough.

The Macro Brief – 22 September 2025

US Dollar and SPX highlighted in today’s Macro Brief

Macro Outlook – 22 September 2025

US Dollar and USDJPY bouncing out of 80 day cycle troughs. Gold up. Oil struggling to confirm 80 day trough. Copper and EURUSD dropping to 80 day troughs. SPX, Nikkei, Bitcoin all formed 20 day troughs in new 20 week cycle. Ten year notes looking for 80 day cycle trough

The Macro Brief – 15 September 2025

The Macro Brief is an excerpt from our weekly Macro Outlook newsletter. Today we are highlighting two instruments which show commonality in their 20-week cycle troughs

Macro Outlook – 15 September 2025

US Dollar and USDJPY being pulled lower by coming 80 day cycle trough. Gold up. Oil bottoming? Copper soft then push again. EURUSD pushing to 80 day cycle peak. SPX, Nikkei, Bitcoin all take off in new 20 week cycle upswing. Ten year notes: 80 day cycle peak in

The Macro Brief – 8 September 2025

US Dollar one push down to 80 day cycle trough. Gold 40 day cycle peak zone. Oil looks like 80 day trough zone. USDJPY struggling. EUR last push then down. SPX e-minis question-mark over 80 day trough location. Bitcoin 80 day cycle trough a little lower but close

Macro Outlook – 8 September 2025

US Dollar one push down to 80 day cycle trough. Gold 40 day cycle peak zone. Oil looks like 80 day trough zone. USDJPY struggling. EUR last push then down. SPX e-minis question-mark over 80 day trough location. Bitcoin 80 day cycle trough a little lower but close

The Macro Brief – 2 September 2025

Gold, EURUSD both in 40 day cycle peak zone. US Dollar, Oil, Copper, USDJPY forming pro-trend 20 day cycle troughs. SPX E-Minis, 10 Year Treasuries at 80 day cycle peaks. Nikkei to 40 day cycle trough zone. Bitcoin 80 day cycle trough forming.

Macro Outlook – 2 September 2025

Gold, EURUSD both in 40 day cycle peak zone. US Dollar, Oil, Copper, USDJPY forming pro-trend 20 day cycle troughs. SPX E-Minis, 10 Year Treasuries at 80 day cycle peaks. Nikkei to 40 day cycle trough zone. Bitcoin 80 day cycle trough forming.

Natural Gas – 26 August 2025

Natural Gas – approaching a 20 week cycle trough.

The Macro Brief – 26 August 2025

The US Dollar, USDJPY and Oil look to be rounding a 40 day cycle trough zone and Gold a 20 day. EURUSD looks to have just stalled at a 40 day cycle peak. We think that the Nikkei and S&P500 have peaked at 80 day cycle magnitude along with Bitcoin.

Macro Outlook – 26 August 2025

The US Dollar, USDJPY and Oil look to be rounding a 40 day cycle trough zone and Gold a 20 day. EURUSD looks to have just stalled at a 40 day cycle peak. We think that the Nikkei and S&P500 have peaked at 80 day cycle magnitude along with Bitcoin.

Macro Outlook – 18 August 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

Macro Outlook – 11 August 2025

USD rounding 40 day cycle trough as is USDJPY. EUR close to topping again. Gold falling further as 40 day cycle peak posts. Copper down, Oil countertrend bump coming then down. S&P500 20 week cycle peak in? Nikkei about to happen.

Macro Outlook – 4 August 2025

The US Dollar is testing the first 40 day trough in the new 40 week cycle. Gold looking for an 80 day trough. Oil and Copper moving into 20 week troughs. JPY has formed the 40 day peak. EUR at a critical juncture for the 80 day cycle. SPX, NKY and Bitcoin declining into 20 week troughs

Macro Outlook – 29 July 2025

The US Dollar has regained the longer uptrend in force. Gold is falling towards next 80 day trough. Oil and Copper are heavy. JPY approaching a 40 day peak. EUR collapsed out of an early 80 day peak. SPX 80 day peak zone. NKY already passed one. Bitcoin trying to base at 40 day trough.

Macro Outlook – 21 July 2025

We will hold off on S&P500 E-minis (ES). We need a little more price action to evaluate the 80 day cycle peak zone test we have been looking at last week.

Macro Outlook – 14 July 2025

The US Dollar looks to have formed a major low (40 week cycle), but there is some conflict with EURUSD analysis. S&P500 E-minis strategically still higher (see last week’s analysis) but near term we look to be in an 80 day cycle peak zone

Macro Outlook – 7 July 2025

The US Dollar and JPY look to have turned a corner. ES is due a reset but the overall price path is ever higher. Bitcoin as well. Copper just put in an 80 day cycle peak and Oil is falling towards its next 40 day cycle trough

10 Year Treasury futures – 2 July 2025

10 Year Treasury futures (TY) – 80 day cycle peak in place?

Macro Outlook – 30 June 2025

We continue to look for an 80 day cycle trough in the US Dollar and Japanese yen which we believe will lead to a macro rotation. Meanwhile ES, EUR, Copper and Bitcoin push higher

US Dollar update – 26 June 2025

US Dollar – 80 day cycle trough has been pushed forward but is close

Macro Outlook – 23 June 2025

The US Dollar looks to have rounded an 80 day cycle trough and is set to push. Conversely Gold and the Euro are heavy. S&P 500 E-minis are heading lower towards the next 80 day cycle trough, but Bitcoin is entering a 20 week cycle trough zone

Trading the News II: Big Impact Events (When Markets Move for Weeks)

Part 3 of the Sentient Approach to trading the news

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Part 2 of the Sentient Approach to trading the news

Macro Outlook – 16 June 2025

The US Dollar still looks heavy and price is being sucked down into an 80 day cycle low. S&P500 futures could very well be setting up for a burst higher. Oil is approaching a natural intermediate target around 80. Bitcoin is pushing tactically but a big trough is looming ahead

Oil (WTI) update – 13 June 2025

Oil (WTI) – new 80 day cycle rising, but nearing first 20 day cycle peak.

Macro Outlook – 9 June 2025

USD rounding 40 day cycle trough and Gold falling. S&P 500 80 day top probably in place. Bitcoin in last rally of the cycle

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Contradictory Cause-Effect Narratives in Financial Media

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US 10 Year Yield – 5 June 2025

US 10 year note bond yields nearing 80 day cycle trough zone

Macro Outlook – 2 June 2025

Overall there is a fair bit of conflict afoot. The assumption is that the Dollar has rounded a 40 day cycle trough and should advance, but we are also seeing near term strength in commodities and Treasury Notes. This week feels like a crux of some sort.

Macro Outlook – 27 May 2025

This week we are looking for the US Dollar to bottom and for Gold, Copper and the Euro to retreat. Oil is meandering but likely has a little more upside near term. Bitcoin still has merit as a long and we will review towards 120k

Bitcoin update – 21 May 2025

Bitcoin – revised view, looking higher for 20 week cycle peak.

Macro Outlook – 19 May 2025

S&P500 futures just topped at 40 day cycle magnitude along with Nikkei futures and potentially Bitcoin. At this stage we are not looking for meaningful resets lower. The US Dollar is still constructive in our view and is merely looking for the first 40 day cycle trough at the moment

Macro Outlook – 12 May 2025

A meaningful rotation higher is underway with the US Dollar and USDJPY and perhaps anachronistically Oil. Equity indices higher, but nearing a 40 day cycle peak still. Gold we see in continued decline near term.

Macro Outlook – 6 May 2025

You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD,

S&P500 E-minis – 1 May 2025

S&P 500 E-minis (ES) – on the way to extended 40 day cycle peak

Natural Gas – 29 April 2025

Natural Gas – counter-trend 80 day cycle kicks off

Macro Outlook – 28 April 2025

We see ES, NI, BTC and TY all in counter-trend 40 day cycle peak zones. The Dollar and USDJPY are trying to gain traction in new 80 day cycle upswings. Oil has merit for continued upside expansion, Gold looks to have peaked at a meaningfully high degree of magnitude

Macro Outlook II – 23 April 2025

DXY and EURUSD updates

Macro Outlook – 22 April 2025

Gold is still pushing towards its 40 week cycle peak. Oil and Copper are reaching for counter-trend 40 day cycle peaks. SPX, NKY and 10 year treasury futures still heavy. Bitcoin counter-trend advance not likely to exceed 95,000

FTSE China Futures (XU) – 16 April 2025

FTSE China Futures – 80 day cycle in counter-trend upswing nearing maturity

Macro Outlook part II – 15 April 2025

We missed out S&P 500 futures, Nikkei futures and Bitcoin in the Monday note and here is our current stance

Macro Outlook – 14 April 2025

The macro landscape is very fluid at the moment, however the US Dollar and USDJPY look to be testing cycle trough zones (40 day and 80 day respectively). Perhaps the biggest call though is the impending 40 week cycle peak in Gold which will track closely this and next week.

US Dollar update – 10 April 2025

US Dollar – revision to Monday’s view: 20 week cycle trough lies ahead of us

S&P500 Index Futures (ES) update – 10 April 2025

S&P 500 Futures – nearing a 20 day cycle peak, then assumption is down again

Gold update – 10 April 2025

Gold – new pro-trend 40 day cycle upswing underway?

US Ten Year Yields – 8 April 2025

US Ten Year Yield – counter-trend 80 day cycle upswing underway

Macro Outlook – 7 April 2025

Post Liberation day there has been a fundamental shock to the cycles regime and we are seeing meaningful price destruction across metals, currencies and equities