Analysis Curated Analysis Applying bandpass filters to Sentient Trader – 6 December 2021

This Cycle Outlook has been kindly provided by William Randall.

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One of the difficulties since the March 2020 low has been visually identifying the dominant waves. This is due in part to the very strong underlying uptrend. Another factor, from the numerical analysis perspective, has been the higher than normal average period modulation of the intermediate price waves. Fortunately the shorter price waves do not seem to be as prone to frequency modulation as the longer waves.

The chart (NQ) below is a continuation of my prior post showing the adaptation of my bandpass filter outputs to Sentient Trader. It shows a somewhat ragged VTL break at the end of November and a large increase in the amplitude of the depicted price wave. It is projecting a lower low sometime between the 5^th and 7^th of December. ST is showing a clean down trending VTL, which the price action is going to have a difficult time breaking before the next projected cyclical high in my opinion.The following chart is the ST representation of my bandpass filter output of a couple of longer price waves based on the pattern present in the price action over the last 6 months or so. Filter outputs are not constrained by “pattern recognition” the way ST’s algorithm is applied. However, as I mentioned before, the difference between the two approaches over relatively short runs of data is usually very small. The chart shows a clean VTL break of the shorter depicted price wave around the 22^nd of November. It is projecting a trough of the two depicted waves around the 3^rd week of December, which corresponds with the projected low of the short wave shown above.

Barring a catastrophic drop of Biblical proportions over the next couple of weeks, the next cyclical low of the longer depicted wave should be higher than the prior low around the beginning of October.