You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology
Bitcoin – new 80 day cycle rising.
80 day cycle just bottomed.
Permission was just granted for Grayscale to introduce a Bitcoin ETF and price advanced quickly, directly out of the trough we were calling for in Monday’s macro note. With one difference however: we had this down as a 40 week cycle trough and the price surge has re-phased the cycles analysis placing the 40 week cycle trough back in mid-June rather than this week. This happens from time to time but the tactical takeaway remains the same in this case: a sharp price increase out of the trough.
We are taking this step by step for now and are looking for a 40 day cycle peak around 30,000 into mid-September (blue target box). The first thing that needs to happen however is for median price to cross up through the 40 day FLD just above current levels circa 27,800. It is feasible that the FLD acts as near term resistance, but we are not anticipating a major pullback.
Longer term be aware that the peak of 13 July was that of an 18 month cycle, which implies that the 18 month cycle is now falling, which points to a broad market headwind.
This post was first published on Hurst Cycles Notes.
