You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology
Bitcoin- 40 day cycle peaked early?
There was a “news driven” spike high into Monday’s macro outlook note’s target and we thought it would be worth having a closer look using some enhanced cycles analysis tools: the FLD system.
In an 80 day cycle with a 20 day FLD overlay there is a sequence of 8 price/FLD interactions:
1. The first up cross out of the start of sequence 80 day cycle trough (11 September) – this is the “A” interaction and marks a rally;
2. A pullback to or around the 20 day FLD into the next “B-C” interaction, preceding a rally.
3. After the rally price falls through the FLD again in a “D” interaction prior to eht 40 day cycle trough;
4. Then it’s up again through the 20 day FLD in an “E” interaction.
Our analysis suggests that’s where we are now and it is basically the final proper Long trade in the sequence. What happens next is the “F” interaction, which is typically a sharp downside move. Note there are still “G” and “H” ahead of us down into the next 80 day cycle trough, but we are going the baby steps route for today and just looking for the top out and tactical take profit.
Anything else we see to support the idea that we should look for an imminent top out?
1. If that last spike high was a 40 day cycle peak, then its early, left translated and near term bearish;
2. The previous 20 day FLD up crosses were all bullish and exceeded targets, but the last one met only the target, this is more neutral and suggests a shift down;
3. The 80 day cycle is due on 13 November or thereabouts, if this call pans out then we should be down until then.
This post was first published on Hurst Cycles Notes.
