You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology.
Post Liberation day there has been a fundamental shock to the cycles regime and we are seeing meaningful price destruction across metals, currencies and equities. There is more selling to be done we think: VIX is pointing straight up with vol trading at 60 (incidentally the August 2024 spike high was 65), US CTAs have just thrown in the towel, and the “deep money” is still on sidelines with no indication of an accumulation phase begun yet. It would be imprudent at this stage to be too dogmatic with targets and cycle inflection time locations, but we have a go at making some sense of the landscape below.
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