You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology
NVIDIA – more downside than upside as 40 day cycle trough pulls on price.
The 12 August low is likely a 20 week cycle trough. Since this cycle is only 19 days along, we assume its status is still up, which informs the underlying uptrend.
We are looking here at the first 40 day cycle out of this longer cycle trough. The 40 day cycle peak is very likely already in place. The 24 August orthodox peak has been labelled as that of the 40 day, but it could also easily be offset to the right at the 30 August peak. The latter labelling is slightly more bullish as that peak is right translated by 6 days.
Price looks to be reacting to the 20 day cycle trough currently, but we expect very limited upside here and probably no higher than the 20 day FLD circa 480. This therefore would be a low conviction long into a falling 40 day cycle. What we are really tracking here is the next 40 day cycle trough, which is due by the last week of the month and potentially down to 420, which is the 20 day FLD downside projection. At this point we would be looking for a long trade into the next 40 day cycle peak.
This post was first published on Hurst Cycles Notes.
