You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology
Stalking the 40 day cycle trough here.
Price is aggressively testing the timezone for the 40 day cycle trough after what looks to be a five wave count down from the 40 day cycle peak of 15 September. We still do not have confirmation, but its worth an alert here.
The levels to watch are circa 4,330 to 4,342 for an upside cross of the 5 day VTL and the 5 day FLD. If the VTL is crossed then we will assume that a 10 day cycle trough is in place. Because the cycles synchronise at their troughs we can cautiously start assuming that the 20 day and 40 day cycle troughs are in place.
The 10 day FLD and VTL are positioned circa 4,365 and 4,369 respectively. A good up cross here will confirm the 20 day cycle trough and at this stage we would say the 40 day trough is also in place and risk is to the upside with the new 40 day cycle we have been stalking these past few weeks.
Looking across to the Dollar Index and away from cycles for a moment, 9 day RSI at 84 is as high as it has been since the end of September price peak in 2022 and looks rotational. We expect the two series to inversely correlate at this stage of the cycle.
This post was first published on Hurst Cycles Notes.
