You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology
Uranium ETF – heading into 40 day cycle peak within broader uptrend.
The heady price action in the Uranium ETF has nullified the previous analysis and forced a rethink. The prior call on 30 October was for a push down into 40 day cycle trough within a broader down component (the falling 20 week cycle). The call is now 7% offside and we think that the reason is that Uranium does not conform to Hurst’s original cyclic nominal model. As such we have recalculated using a custom model that we find works regularly in these modern times (the original theory was first developed in the 1970s).
Our new nominal model has the end of August low as a 20 week cycle trough and the mid October low as the start of a new 80 day cycle which is now only 16 days along its trajectory and its status therefore is up. See how well the 80 day VTL has provided support. We are in the first 40 day cycle of this longer 80 day cycle now and are expecting a peak above 28 around 10 November, testing the end September high. The next 40 day cycle trough is due from the third week of November, but because of the underlying uptrend component we are expecting a relatively shallow pullback.
This post was first published on Hurst Cycles Notes.
