You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology
US Dollar – closing in on top zone.
Top out is closing in on us.
In Monday’s Macro Outlook we were looking for a push higher into a 20 day cycle peak with the slightly dubious assumption being that the 80 day cycle had peaked already – the peak phasing analysis suggested as much. However, taking a step back and ignoring the phasing analysis peak triangles of that note, with an 80 day cycle trough due around mid-October and with prices clearly still rising, we have to assume that price is still being sucked into the 80 day cycle peak. The composite cycle line has been plotted and we think its a reasonable roadmap except that it is hugging the peak too closely here – which can happen. Shifting this line up to hit 106 and then following the same trajectory going forward makes more sense to us.
The 80 day FLD was crossed up in the first week of August and projects to just under 106. This is a key level for another reason as well, its around the March spike high failure and we think its a natural liquidity magnet at this point in the cycle. We are therefore looking for about a point more upside before a topping formation starts.
The underlying trend is still robust with a young upswing of the 18 month cycle that kicked off in July still in force. And in fact there have been eight consecutive white weekly candles, you can see them in the headline image for this note. We are due a refresh and the dollar tends to power into tops.
This post was first published on Hurst Cycles Notes.
