Here is the current Sentient Trader Outlook for the EURO/US Dollar forex pair. Here is the long-term picture:
The euro is falling toward an 18-month trough expected to form by the end of this year. This will complete the first of the three 18 month cycles in the current 54-month cycle which started in June 2010. Because the underlying trend of this cycle is UP the forthcoming 18 month trough is expected to be higher than the previous trough (of 1.18), probably in the range of 1.35 – 1.42.
Here is the medium term picture:
Here you can see that the trough of 12 July 2011 has been phased as a trough of the 20-week cycle. 14.9 months have elapsed since the last 18-month trough, which is why we expect a further 3 months of falling prices before the end of this cycle. An argument could be made for an early 18-month trough on 12 July 2011 although the shorter cycles do not break down as well, and the “bounce” out of that trough has been fairly dismal, indicating a straddled 20-week trough as being more likely.
(As a matter of interest our live analysis system is currently working with the alternate analysis of an early 18-month trough.)
The short term picture shows that the 40-day cycle is expected to trough soon, and price is already within range, although the downside target (centered around 1.41) could well be exceeded. Thereafter price is expected to rise.Note that the target for the peak of the next 40 day cycle is expected to be undershot (note the red fill of the target box extends below the box), and so the rise should be expected to disappoint.
