You will come across specific terms in these notes (FLD, VTL, and so on). Rather than explain them each time, you will find definitions here: guidance notes for Hurst cycles terminology
Natural Gas futures – rounding a 20 week cycle trough?
Potential for uplift in new 20 week cycle.
Price has double-tapped rising trend support (the 80 day VTL) which is potentially constructive. Moreover, this has occurred in a 20 week cycle trough zone. It is difficult to see the component 80 day cycle trough happening much later as it is already quite stretched at 83 days since the last trough at the end of May (the average wavelength is 68.5 days). It should also be noted that although the last two 80 day cycle peaks were heavily right translated (late in the cycle) and therefore bullish, the peak on 11 August was likely that of a 40 week cycle.
The 40 week cycle downswing is therefore weighing on price, which may truncate the anticipated rally into the next 40 day cycle peak, potentially due in late September and above 3.0. The analysis suggests that this is a decent set up, but ideally we need a good push up through the current level (the 20 day FLD – not shown) to confirm.
This post was first published on Hurst Cycles Notes.
